On February 1st, I stated that if the 10 year yield can hold 1.85 as support it should move higher toward next resistance. So far that is the case.
My prediction is that long term yields will continue to rise widening the the yield curve between the long and short end. But the next compression won't be downward, it should be upward pulling the 6 month (and 3 month) yields higher.
Hence the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates. (Proving that the Fed is not really in control)
And then they will not be praised, they will certainly be damned instead when things start spiraling out of control.
A near universal belief, by all observers, that the Fed is "omnipotent" is a very bearish market trait. Who doubts the Fed? No one? You should, we are nearing "peak Fed mania".
The most recent NAAIM survey via Sentiment Trader. Quite extreme.
