Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 July 2012

The SPX daily shows a very nice Elliott wave structure from the 1422 SPX high. We have 5 waves down and some kind of counter-move three wave structure retracing over 62%.  Its hard to argue that its something else. In EW theory we look for the best counts. And the best count is bearish.

Minor 2 tried to re-take key resistance in the zone where we expected it be stopped. After all, if Minor 2 can re-take this resistance, whats to stop it from challenging previous highs? But it hasn't been able to re-take resistance so its best count is that this is a Minor 2 wave and that the market may be in the early stages of Minor 3 down.

Note how much bearish potential exists for Minor 3. If Minor 3 extends a modest 1.618 of Minor 1, the market should be well under 1200 SPX in a Minor 3 down move.  A close under 1335 would help confirm Minor 3 down status.

SPX 5 minute squiggles shows impulsiveness to the downside.