Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 May 2012

Looking at the 30 minute chart, a lower low to complete a 5 wave impulse from the recent high would be ideal for the wave pattern. The market has a bit of freedom on how it gets there as long as any further rally tends to be muted/sideways to make for a small wave four then having wave five to a lower low than today's low.

Anything less would put a question mark on the bear case.  Let the waves determine bull or bear.

So we expect some more general weakness/uncertainty and then a move down to form wave i of (iii) or wave (i) from a truncated high. (the truncated high is where the DJIA topped).

If this is wave (iii), then we can expect the first subwave - wave i of (iii) - to advance prices to beneath where wave (i) prices are.

Certainly the market was short-term oversold after last Friday's selloff.  Today's overall flat day did wonders to alleviate the deeper oversold conditions. For instance Friday's closing TRIN on the NASDAQ was 2.6. Today, with only a 1 point gain, The NASDAQ TRIN worked off that somewhat deeper oversold and is now more neutral at 1.26.

Also for example via Sentiment Trader, their proprietary STEM MR. (Short Term Timing Model) went from 70% oversold to 39% which is actually closer to the overbought line (25%) than an oversold line (70%).

Here would be one such proposed pathing for the bearish case using the SPY.  First a moved down to fufill wave v.  Then a 3 wave move up to fulfill Wave (ii).  Wave (iii) breaks the market under. These are the kind of bearish patterns to look for over the course of the next few days/week.

So that about sums up the situation.